Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 34.658680 37.353484 40.299140 43.785376 47.835522 52.439561 58.139179
2025-09-14 30.625438 34.144719 38.238930 43.444998 50.030884 58.300926 69.861627
2025-09-21 27.956344 31.778858 36.390870 42.519142 50.711552 61.733088 78.618723
2025-09-28 25.908643 29.866454 34.771009 41.508546 50.914731 64.309981 86.562104
2025-10-05 25.252910 29.571222 35.087501 42.966229 54.560263 72.313843 105.273780
2025-10-12 24.497738 29.053972 35.021021 43.828355 57.401195 79.627069 125.778075
2025-10-19 23.707215 28.411659 34.701664 44.248996 59.571772 86.266536 148.302504
2025-10-26 22.882710 27.656459 34.147999 44.233690 60.994091 91.860849 171.918844
2025-11-02 21.931000 26.665090 33.180657 43.475774 61.030572 94.767769 190.601191
2025-11-09 21.016545 25.674549 32.147175 42.514390 60.569727 96.541141 207.459128
2025-11-16 20.255369 24.859613 31.318141 41.803413 60.458166 99.038580 229.322402
2025-11-23 19.573344 24.123987 30.562526 41.146375 60.356712 101.541332 254.310593
2025-11-30 19.315452 23.995632 30.726294 42.058210 63.449636 112.810867 340.026360
2025-12-07 18.769559 23.428291 30.194190 41.753165 64.115769 118.264488 411.804689
2025-12-14 18.132565 22.700702 29.376222 40.887401 63.513823 120.086987 466.409906
2025-12-21 17.520758 21.987207 28.546695 39.943287 62.637235 120.921603 519.691679
2025-12-28 17.472949 22.098685 29.003907 41.304987 66.903028 139.211250 952.310141
2026-01-04 17.302217 22.017393 29.147871 42.109259 70.087958 156.105269 2105.813501
2026-01-11 17.055610 21.810230 29.075605 42.501372 72.383977 171.425740 8652.737428
2026-01-18 16.743242 21.490564 28.802591 42.487108 73.688616 183.745112 NaN
2026-01-25 16.315796 20.980647 28.194118 41.780438 73.140209 187.446646 NaN
2026-02-01 15.873651 20.435908 27.508397 40.883147 71.997641 187.866912 NaN
2026-02-08 15.495835 19.980525 26.956003 40.218911 71.401214 190.994349 NaN